FOUR CENTRAL REALITES: By The Hon. Lee H. Hamilton With Introduction

In a world of around-the-clock news, American policies must never lose sight of the central global realities: The first is the preeminence of American power at the beginning of the 21st century.

Goals for Americans Foundation is honored to be associated with The Hon. Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chairman of the 9/11 Commission, Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and former U.S. Representative from Indiana.

In Congress, Lee Hamilton was a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the chairman of the House Select Committee on Intelligence. He is an expert in foreign affairs and intelligence. We are honored to share his expertise in his essay “Four Central Realities.”

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In a world of around-the-clock news, the big picture is sometimes lost in a stream of images — an election in Iraq, an assassination in Lebanon, a presidential trip to Europe, a shift in the international markets. But to succeed, American policies must never lose sight of the central global realities. What trends are driving events? Upon what landscape are international affairs taking place?

The United States is the world’s military, economic, technological, and cultural leader. Yet while our ability to accomplish things around the globe is unparalleled, it is also limited.

A first central reality at the beginning of the 21st century is the preeminence of American power. The United States is the world’s military, economic, technological, and cultural leader. Yet while our ability to accomplish things around the globe is unparalleled, it is also limited. In 2005, we find ourselves overstretched: immersed in the war on terror, Afghanistan, and Iraq; facing soaring budget and trade deficits; and battling disturbingly high global resentment, even as we maintain a reservoir of goodwill around the globe.

Despite misgivings about American power, the world still looks to the United States for practically everything — chiefly peace and prosperity. For every major crisis or global initiative, people will look for American action. And despite American misgivings about working with the world, we need the cooperation of friends and allies to tackle urgent challenges — from training Iraqi security services, to addressing Iran’s nuclear program, to tracking down terrorists, to negotiating international trade agreements. The United States is dominant; but we cannot succeed alone.

A second central reality is the shifting alignment of the great powers. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the world order has proven more fluid than it has been for decades — perhaps centuries. China and India are rapidly on the rise, with respective populations climbing into the billions, fast-growing economies, advanced technology sectors, nuclear weapons, and remarkable political and military potential. Countries like Brazil and Indonesia are also poised to play a larger role in their respective regions, and within international institutions.

The old powers are changing. The enlarged European Union now has a bigger economy and population than the United States.

Meanwhile, old powers are changing. The enlarged European Union now has a bigger economy and population than the United States, and is in the process of ratifying a Constitution. Russia lurches between democracy and authoritarianism, and engagement with the world and estrangement. The overall trend in international relations is toward more centers of global power, perhaps with a shift toward Asia.

A third central reality is globalization: the “mega-trend” on the world scene. A growing interconnectedness among people, technologies, communications, transportation, capital flows, goods, and services touches nearly every aspect of our lives. With this interconnectedness comes interdependence: a change in the financial markets of East Asia roils the global marketplace; jobs and investment move from country to country; events in a distant land like Afghanistan endanger the United States.

The benefits of globalization are not global. There are winners and losers in this rapid change.

The benefits of globalization are not global. There are winners and losers in this rapid change. For all the wealth, efficiency, and understanding created in the last decade, there has been persistent poverty, inequality, and anger. This leads in part to the fourth central reality: swelling turmoil in the world. The danger of great power conflicts like World War II has been at least temporarily superseded by other types of insecurity: economic, cultural, and political convulsions caused by rapid change, weak governments, civil wars, epidemic disease, environmental and population crises, and increasingly available technology. A world changing at remarkable speed is facing growing pains.

Other bubbling challenges lie in wait: population growth and environmental degradation that could pose unprecedented challenges to humanity.

Terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons are the most dangerous and urgent symptoms of this turmoil. But a slew of other bubbling challenges lie in wait: increased energy demands and decreasing resources; poverty and hunger that can turn whole regions into war-zones; population growth and environmental degradation that could pose unprecedented challenges to humanity; or any one of the overlooked tragedies that dot the map of the world.

The challenge for the United States and the world is negotiating these central realities without breeding more turmoil. The United States must use its preeminent power to help spread peace and prosperity. The great powers must resist the kinds of tensions that have produced great wars throughout human history. And the benefits of globalization must reach more of humanity.

It will not be easy. But if we can make the central realities of American power, changing great power relationships and globalization forces for good through the coming decades, than the swelling turmoil in today’s world can be outpaced by freedom, justice, and opportunity.

March 3, 2005 | Filed Under GFA