LOOKING AHEAD: By the Hon. Lee H. Hamilton With Introduction

The recommendations of the 9/11 Commission are so important that Chairman Kean, Vice Chairman Hamilton, and the other Commissioners are continuing their work in a series of weekly public panels this summer.

Goals for Americans Foundation is honored to present the Hon. Lee H. Hamilton’s essay on Looking Ahead here.

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National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley was sworn in on January 26, 2005

A few years ago, I was in the office of the National Security Advisor. I asked about the large stack of files on his desk. He said, “Lee, those files all deserve immediate attention. They cannot wait.” Then, I noticed another large stack, twice as high, behind him. “Those,” he said, “are extremely urgent.”

I have no doubt President Bush’s current National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, faces a similar workload, as do policymakers throughout government. A country as large and powerful as the United States is beset by challenges crying out for attention. But amidst this clamor for action on immediate problems, government urgently needs to tackle long-term challenges that can cause problems down the road. Allowing these problems to fester today only enlarges their consequences tomorrow.

Americans have been addicted to oil and gas for decades even though we know that oil addiction harms the environment and makes our economy more vulnerable to events in the Middle East.

Take energy. For decades the American people have had an addiction to oil and gas. We know this addiction harms the environment, makes our economy more vulnerable to events in the Middle East, and necessitates alliances with governments like those of Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan. Yet successive American administrations have been unwilling or unable to fundamentally alter our energy policy.

The risks will only grow over time, and the catastrophic scenarios are plentiful. As China, India, and others need more oil and gas, nations will have to compete — perhaps violently — over scarce resources. As popular disaffection with the royal family grows in Saudi Arabia, the global economy could be turned upside down by a revolution in that oil-rich country. As carbon dioxide emissions continue, global warming may irrevocably damage the environment. In other words, if we do not aggressively develop alternative sources of energy today, we will likely be forced to do so under more dire circumstances tomorrow.

World Poverty People With Less Than $2 a Day

Take poverty. One half of the world’s people live on less than two dollars a day. This should concern our national security policy as well as our conscience. When we turn our backs on the world’s poor, we turn our backs on flashpoints for famine, mass migration, drug-trafficking, epidemic disease, civil conflicts, failing states, and war, as well as breeding grounds for terrorism and extremism. If we do not work with the international community to fight poverty around the world today, we will all experience a blow-back tomorrow.

People in other countries, particlarly Muslim, feel we act unilaterally; are too quick to use military force; and focus on terrorism to the exclusion of issues that are important to other countries.

Or consider the long-term challenge posed by anti-Americanism. The U.S. has acquired reservoirs of goodwill around the globe over many years. But it is clear — from polling data and ample anecdotal evidence — that America is losing its allure in much of the world. People feel we act unilaterally; are too quick to use military force; and focus on terrorism to the exclusion of issues that are important to other countries. Allegations of detainee abuse — in Iraq, Afghanistan, and at Guantanamo Bay — have devastated our already tattered image in the Islamic world.

Addressing global resentment cannot be put off. If we do not learn to use our predominant power with great restraint, we will antagonize the world. If we do not show an interest in issues like economic development, other nations will not support our agenda of fighting terrorism and proliferation, and will look elsewhere — perhaps to Europe or China — for leadership. If we do not provide a model for treatment of detainees, we will lose our standing as an exemplar of democracy and human rights. If we do not make public diplomacy and outreach to the Islamic world a priority today, it may be too late to reverse antagonisms towards America tomorrow.

Time and again, we have learned the consequences of overlooking tough challenges. In the 1980s, we neglected the emerging HIV/AIDS epidemic. In the 1980s and 1990s, we failed to stem the growing tide of Islamic extremism, and in the late 1980s and 1990s, we ignored Afghanistan as it became a sanctuary for Osama bin Laden. More action then might have saved the U.S. and the world some of the trouble we face today. This is a task for more than government — business, nongovernmental organizations, research institutions, universities, and even interested individuals should think about what they can do to help achieve the kind of world they want to occupy in 2010, 2020, or even 2050.

Tackling long-term challenges can do more than help us avert the kinds of crises that stack up on a National Security Advisor’s desk. More action today also allows us to preserve the environment, fight disease, spread prosperity, provide a stronger foundation for our economy, and secure the American people and America’s place in the world. It means planting seeds, instead of simply putting out fires.