America’s Last Chance in Iraq: Changing U.S. Strategy to Meet Iraq’s Real Needs

Anthony Cordesman is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan organization dedicated to providing strategic planning and policy insights for our leaders.

In his September 2007 report, Anthony Cordesman does not mince words: “We have no good options in Iraq!”

“We have a moral and ethical obligation to the Iraqi people.”

Even though he believes the situation is dire, Cordesman still thinks our chances for success in Iraq are about 50 percent. But he also makes it clear that our window of opportunity for successfully changing course is quickly closing.

He acknowledges the usual list of mistakes and blunders we’ve committed over the past four years, but he concentrates his report on the present and the future, and provides specific goals and objectives that must be accomplished if we are to avoid complete failure – the implosion of the central government and all-out civil war.

Cordesman, like many other experienced voices in this debate, believes success in Iraq will not be defined in military terms, but instead must be defined by political compromise and power sharing.

The “surge,” no matter how successful in the short term, will not bring us victory, will not bring peace and prosperity to Iraq, nor will it lead to an honorable exit plan for our military.

Failure in Iraq is inevitable if the central government does not bring about reconciliation and power sharing among the three ethnic-sectarian parties – if it fails to unite the country around a common purpose, a common identity, and a shared vision for the future.

The current Shiite-dominated government under Nuri Maliki, he concludes, has failed completely in this regard – and as they fail, so does our entire mission!

Cordesman is contemptuous of the wasted years in Iraq, when we tinkered with nation building and social engineering instead of executing a well-thought-out plan for governance and oversight.

He recognizes that Iraqi society has fractured into “ethnic zones” as a result of the forces of theocratic division violence and ethnic cleansing. This deadly low-level civil war has created a massive refugee crisis that is destabilizing the entire Middle East.

Our present obsession with Baghdad and Ambar province, he argues, is blinding us to the more serious reality in the south, where the central government has no influence or control, and where three powerful Shiite clans are fighting for dominance. The four main provinces in the south – which include 30 percent of the population and produce 80 percent of the oil exports – have become ‘de facto enclaves.’

Our indifference to this consolidation of Shiite power and autonomy could become the eventual tipping point that leads to the violent breakup of the entire country – and the ultimate failure of our mission.

U.S. troops conduct a joint patrol with the Iraqi Police, near Sadr City, Baghdad.

CORDESMAN’S SOLUTIONS

Cordesman believes the Bush administration must abandon its dreams of the Iraq it “wants” and accept the reality of the Iraq that “is!”

This “new reality” must include a series of changes that must be in progress by next spring if we are to prevent the collapse of the country.

1. The central government must evolve to include meaningful and sustainable power and resource sharing among the three main groups. This process must include the reconstitution of the Defense and Interior ministries, and the dismantling of the existing national police force.
2. A fair and transparent oil revenue sharing law must be passed – one that insures an equitable distribution of revenue to the local communities as well as to the three main ethnic regions in general.
3. A “re-Baathification” program must be implemented to reverse the destructive results of the “de-Baathifiction” program put into place by the Coalition Provisional Authority in May of 2003. This would include an amnesty program for former insurgents and militia members.
4. Provisional and local authorities must be given more autonomy over their regional affairs, with targeted aid and help provided by Provisional Reconstruction Teams (PRT).
5. Our entire reconstruction and aid system should be scrapped and replaced with a unified transparent system with clearly defined projects, strict auditing and vigilant oversight.
6. A major oil industry revitalization effort must be undertaken.
7. Another major effort must include the upgrading of the power, fresh water, and sanitation infrastructures as well as the dams and agricultural irrigation system for “future possible federalism,” as Cordesman says.

These are some of the highlights of Anthony Cordesman’s assessment called “LAST CHANCE IN IRAQ.”

On one critical point, his opinions parallel those expressed by all of the authors included in this publication: They all believe that time is quickly running out for us to turn this situation around – to fashion a victory out of this huge and dangerous undertaking.

The critical point, he believes, is that the Bush administration must face reality once and for all.

NOTE: Plan V for Victory in Iraq provides an immediate roadmap for the U.S. to work with the Maliki government and all other factions to achieve the results that Cordesman recommends.

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