The Fund for Peace

Pauline Baker, President of The Fund for Peace and author of “A WAY OUT: THE UNION OF IRAQI STATES”

A recent new voice calling for a managed breakup of Iraq is the nonpartisan Washington DC-based think tank, The Fund for Peace.

“A Way Out: The Union of Iraq States” with Conflict Assessment System Tool charts and Failed States Index

In the final report of a seven-part series, the Fund has come to the conclusion that Iraq is a failed state in the process of a violent disinte-gration – a process that will only get far worse if we don’t try something new, and quickly.

The Fund developed an analytic tool called CAST – the Conflict Assessment System Tool. They also helped develop the FSI – Failed States Index, featured in the cover story of the July issue of Foreign Policy magazine. By this metric, Iraq comes in second only to Sudan on the global failed states scale.

The Fund for Peace has issued their final position paper entitled “A WAY OUT – THE UNION OF IRAQI STATES.”

Iraq, they explain, is already breaking violently apart along ethnic and religious lines – and we remain powerless to stop it. Wouldn’t it be better, they argue, to manage that breakup as much as possible, to limit the damage and keep it from spreading beyond Iraq’s borders?

This breakup, they argue, is happening because the central government continues to fail in its primary mission: To inspire a sense of unity and common purpose among the rival factions. It continues to fail to earn the respect and trust of the average citizen.

As the central government fails, and becomes more irrelevant by the week, local clans, tribal factions, warlords, criminal gangs, insurgents, and sectarian militias fight for advantage, territory, resources, and power, and generally make life in Iraq a continuous hell.

Our handpicked leaders have all failed – Ahmed Chalabi, Ayad Allawi, and now Nuri al-Maliki.

Islamic extremists from all over the region have come to Iraq to wage jihad against our troops, who are once again occupying a Muslim country by force.

The Fund for Peace believes it is imperative that we change course because the regional stability is increasingly threatened by the violent upheavals now roiling Iraq – and this is unacceptable!

As Iraq falls apart, the refugee crisis is straining the resources and stability of surrounding countries, with Jordan and Syria enduring the greatest hardship.

As Iraq spins out of control, Turkey grows more and more restless and impatient, and this increases the likelihood of a violent confrontation between the autonomous Kurdish region and its Turkish neighbors that could spin out of control.

The Solution:

The Fund for Peace believes that the European Union is a good model to work from. Three independent Iraqi states would be held together by a powerful economic union that would insure their mutual survival, security, and common aspirations.

Such a Union would encourage foreign investment, and insure free trade and the movement of labor and capitol across borders.

An international entity would manage the fair distribution of oil revenues. Neighboring countries would secure the borders, extend diplomatic recognition to the three states, and sign non-aggression pacts.

A secure and peaceful Iraqi Union would reverse the refugee crisis.

The United States could withdraw from Iraq, leaving behind a nascent Union that had a viable chance at a peaceful future.

Key Quotes from the Goals For Americans Interview with Pauline Baker:

“The central question is that neither of the three groups really want to be governed by any of the other groups … and yet there is some sort of logic in staying together. So what we are proposing is a Union of Iraqi States very loosely modeled on the European Union … This would have to be done through negotia-tions and you would have to have kind of a ‘Grand Bargain’ with the neighboring states
as well, because it can’t survive unless the neighboring states support it.”

“There’s an awful lot in the current Constitution that points toward autonomy…. The Kurds took the existing Constitution provisions and ran with it. The Shia said well we like this but lets go softly because we want to bring the Sunni in…. Whereas the Sunnis rejected it entirely…. There still would be an Iraqi entity, the Union of Iraqi States. But this would really be a very unique political order in which sovereignty would be shared rather than concentrated in the center.”

An Iraqi insurgent aims his weapon – Baghdad, Iraq.

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