IRAQ’S LAST CHANCE!

The Iraq Constitutional Review Process, Reconciliation and National Unity

General David Petraeus
and Ryan Crocker

In April, the commanding General David Petraeus, and the Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, will once again report through public testimony before the Congress to the American people.

It is their job to carry out and report about policy. It is the duty and responsibility of our elected official in Washington to act on this advice and to change course when this is necessary.

Even though we are in the final months of the Bush/Cheney presidency, we should not allow this administration to simply sit back, run out the clock, and to pass the monumental problem of Iraq on to the next president.

This is correctly considered to be “Bush’s War” – the title of the recent four and a half hour PBS Frontline documentary broadcast on the recent 5th anniversary of the invasion. We should hold the president and his top advisors accountable for every remaining day they remain in power - to demand that they remain engaged, involved and open to new and bold ideas!

The Iraqi Constitution that was approved in October 2005 was supposed to be a “work in progress,” but it hasn’t turned out that way.

The Constitution was supposed to rally the Iraqi people together under a single blueprint for a peaceful and prosperous future. But the Constitution remains problematic and incomplete, and it has failed to pull the country together. That stark reality is starting to unravel and reverse the security gains we have so painfully accomplished over the past year.

U.S. troops conduct a joint patrol
with the Iraqi Police, near
Sadr City, Baghdad.

The recent violence in the Basra region and Sadr City, the sprawling slum within Baghdad, could very well represent the beginning of the next civil war within Iraq. This deadly confrontation, now in another fragile cease-fire, threatens to again flare back up as an all-consuming fight between warring Shiite factions for control of the oil-rich Basra region.

The Constitution is clear on some points but dangerously vague on others - which explains in large part why the political culture in Iraq is so dreadfully flawed!

ARTICLE #1 states that ‘The Republic of Iraq is a single federal, independent and fully sovereign state in which the system of government is republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic, and this Constitution is a guarantor of the unity of Iraq.

The “unfinished business” aspect of the Constitution involves, among other things, the final status of the oil-rich region of Kirkuk in the Kurdish region, the nature of FEDERALISM, as defined in SECTION FIVE, Articles 116/122, and “final powers status” of the presidency and the prime minister’s office.

The Sunnis were persuaded to sign onto the Constitution only after they were guaranteed that these issues would be resolved through Constitutional amendments down the road. But like many other critical issues facing Iraq, ‘down the road” never happened. At the moment, because it’s convenient and profitable for them, many in the Sunni community are holding their fire and working with American forces. But that could change dramatically if they run out of patience, and decide and believe that we are complicit in the stalled Constitutional review process – the unfinished business.

A Constitutional Review is one of the original 13 BENCHMARKS or MILESTONES laid out by President Bush over a year ago, most of which remain unaccomplished. This was the very basis for sending more troops to Iraq, i.e. “the surge”.

In early 2007 the 31-member CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW COMMITTEE was established to come up with a package of amendments for the Constitution.

But to date, this committee has yet to make any real progress in their mission, and the deadlines for making recommendations to Parliament have been pushed back time and time again.

Even if the Committee ever comes up with a list of Constitutional amendments, the path forward is daunting. The Parliament must vote for the package of amendments as a whole, not individually, and this would require a majority vote. The package would then need to be approved in a public referendum, and then it would need at least a two-thirds majority approval in at least sixteen of the eighteen provinces.

FEDERALISM DENIED

Article 116 of SECTION FIVE of the Constitution says that the federal system in the republic of Iraq is made up of a decentralized capital, regions and governorates, as well as local administrations. In other words, Baghdad as the capitol of the central government, semi-autonomous ‘regions” and the “provinces” that comprise these regions.

Article 117 of SECTION FIVE recognizes KURDISTAN as a federal region.

Article 118 of SECTION FIVE spells out the nature of a federal republic. Article 118 instructs the Council of Representatives - Parliament - to establish a law that defines the executive procedures to form regions, and to do so within the first six months after its first session. But that was over two years ago and nothing of a sort has happened in Parliament.

Article 119 of SECTION FIVE says that one or more governorates – provinces – can organize into a “region.”

Article 120 of SECTION FIVE instructs these regions to come up with their own Constitutions, as long as they don’t contradict the national Constitution.

But this entire process – one that was at the heart of the much-heralded 2005 election — has been denied to the Iraqi people largely because the al-Malaki government, with our tacit approval, has refused to act.

BENCHMARKS NOT MET

Over a year ago, President Bush acknowledged the political failures in Iraq, and with the agreement of the Iraqi government, came up with “18 BENCHMARKS FOR PROGRESS”. These benchmarks were to be the yardstick by which we evaluated political and reconciliation progress in Iraq.

But the report card to date from Iraq is dismal – limited progress has been made on only three of the 18 benchmarks so far.

Because of this inertia, the central government has been steadily losing influence and respect, and power has been devolving down to the local levels in a random and chaotic process.

Explosions of violence like recent developments in Basra and Baghdad have exposed the fractured and fragile nature of Iraqi society. This dangerous trend will only continue and accelerate if the “unfinished business” isn’t corrected by an urgent joint effort by the White House and Baghdad.

WHAT MUST NOW BE ACCOMPLISHED

Recently the Iraqi Parliament passed the PROVINCIAL POWERS LAW, which provides for provincial elections in October 2008. The few success stories we have seen, however tenuous, have occurred at the local level, especially in Anbar Province. If power continues to flow from top to bottom, these elections could help as much as anything to minimize violence and contain the process within democratic parameters.

The UNITED NATIONS ASSISTANCE MISSION OF IRAQ (UNAMI) is on board to help the IRAQI HIGH ELECTORAL COMMISSION make sure the October elections are organized and accomplished in an honest, professional and transparent manner. We must not allow flare-ups of regional violence like we saw in Basra to derail or postpone these elections, as critical as they are to Iraq’s democratic trajectory.

If Iraq is to hold together as a country, it’s government and its people must first pull together to accomplish these two primary goals: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM and PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS.

THE OIL LAWS

Corruption and waste
with the oil wells

Iraq is blessed with an abundance of oil and natural gas. Con-servative estimates give Iraq about 115 billion barrels of proven reserves, and it is possible that the unexplored desert region in the west might very well contain an additional 50 to 80 billion barrels. If properly utilized, this great prize could rebuild Iraq to its former Mesopotamian splendor and beyond. It could once again become the Crown Jewel of Enlightenment – a beacon of prosperity and hope in a troubled turbulent region.

One of the original Benchmarks called for comprehensive HYDROCARBON LAWS to be enacted. Without this legal framework in place, Iraq will continue to be rudderless, unfocused, and forever prone to backsliding into civil war.

These laws will cover various hotly contested issues that can no longer be avoided and delayed:

The powers invested in the Oil and Gas Council within the central government
The powers within the reconstituted National Oil Company
Equitable revenue sharing among the provincial populations and regional governments
How will exploration and extraction contracts be awarded to foreign companies?
Who will finance and manage the energy industry’s infrastructure reconstruction needs
The final status of the oil region around Kirkuk

Currently producing just over two million barrels of oil a day, Iraq’s oil industry is plagued with antiquated technology, a crumbling and poorly maintained infrastructure, sabotage, corruption and an endemic shortage of skilled workers.

A failed electricity grid

Furthermore, there are other critical INFRASTRUCTURE IMPERATIVES that include access to clean water for drinking, cooking and bathing, sewage treatment systems, a reliable and efficient electrical grid and public transportation.

After five years of our occupation, according to the International Committee Of The Red Cross, Iraq has one of the most critical humanitarian situations in the world today. Basic issues of security, public health and the educational system must be urgent priorities and we must do everything possible to both encourage and prod the Iraqi government to deal with these critical issues immediately.

The vast refugee crisis continues to burden the entire region, with about 2 million internally displaced citizens and another 2 million having fled beyond the Iraqi borders.

In short, all of these critical issues and needs can be addressed and fully funded, but not until Iraq establishes security, amends the Constitution and advances federalism, moves forward with the October elections and passes the Oil Laws.

The Bush/Cheney administration has had plenty of time to work with the Iraqi government to move forward on these basic issues. We must impress on them that the time for VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE WITH THE 18 BENCHMARKS IS OVER! We must hold their feet to the fire this time!

ENFORCEMENT OF OPTIONS - THE IRAQ PARLIAMENT’S PRICE FOR NON-PERFORMANCE

Moving from the present state of political paralysis in Iraq to a more inclusive, peaceful and hopeful future is not going to be simple or easy. Even so, we now owe a maximum effort to the people of Iraq who have suffered so terribly. Here are some possible enforcement options we should consider in order to credibly demonstrate our seriousness of purpose, both to ourselves and to the Iraqi authorities:

WITHHOLD reconstruction funds from future supplemental budgets
FREEZE current Reconstruction projects and funding
WITHDRAW Regional Reconstruction Teams in the provinces
CEASE joint anti-insurgency operations with Iraqi security forces
SUSPEND training of Iraqi security, army and police forces
SUSPEND arm shipments to Iraqi armed forces and police
EXPELL the Iraqi government from the security of our GREEN ZONE
ESTABLISH A FIXED TIMELINE for our withdrawal of military forces.

Taking such steps should not be done hastily without awareness of the possible consequences. But at the same time, refusing to seriously demonstrate our resolve and determination, thus allowing the current, chaotic and unacceptable situation to continue, will not lead to a peaceful and prosperous Iraq, will not accomplish our stated goals, and may well lead to Iraq becoming a failed state, difficult if not impossible to put back together again.

IN CONCLUSION - IRAQ’S DESTINY IS GRIM

The STATUS QUO in Iraq today is no longer an acceptable option. Without grasping hold of the situation and making sure the constitutional and political reforms long-deemed necessary actually take place, Iraq could dissolve into civil war and spin out of control in a very short time. Consequently, if the Iraqi government does aggressively move forward this year with these imperative changes, its disintegration is destined to continue quite possibly to the point of no return.

At that time, the most disastrous foreign policy blunder in American history will have come full circle – and this cannot be allowed to happen if there is any way to prevent it.

In its final year, the Bush administration still has time to assert a powerful influence over the developments in Iraq that could result in a resurgent country and the beginnings at least of a new, more peaceful, more stable, and more prosperous Middle East. We have the means. Do we have the wisdom and the will?

The time to positively assert our influence is now. The many mistakes of the past should not and must not deter us from now taking hold of this crisis and resolving it to the benefit of the long-suffering people of Iraq, the people of the United States, and the people of the entire region and world.