SUCCESS AND TRAGEDY IN IRAQ

THE SUCCESS:

After many weeks of intense sectarian conflict and bitter negotiations, the IRAQI PARLIAMENT has finally approved the long-awaited ELECTION REFORM LAW. These reforms were essential if the 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS were to have any legitimacy.

Without the reforms that have just been incorporated into the new law, the country faced the very real possibility that major ethnigroups would boycott the elections, setting the stage for a renewal of the 2006 civil war.

The elections are now tentatively scheduled for March 6, almost two months behind the original Jan. 12 date. If this schedule does not stand, a CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS will ensue and the current government will automatically dissolve.

The reform law was originally passed in early November, but Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, vetoed it. He demanded more representation for Sunnis living abroad, which number well over three million. The Kurds in turn demanded more representation for minorities in the disputed Northern Territories around Kirkuk.

The impasse these new demands created lead to intense American and UN involvement to break the deadlock and avoid the Constitutional crisis of a dissolved government.

Without the reform laws, the High Electoral Commission was paralyzed and unable to prepare for the elections. This is not a process that can be rushed to completion, especially without a firm election date to work around.

We know that both President Obama and Vice President Biden got involved by talking directly with Massoud Barzani. The Kurds had two other demands that have been met to their satisfaction – for now.

The Kurds have been pushing for a new census in the Northern Territories – the border regions between Kurdistan and northern Iraq – because they believe it will reflect a greater number of Kurds and Kurdish sympathizers then the 2005 census. They have now been promised a 2010 CENSUS, to be monitored by the UN.

The Kurds will now have 43 seats in Parliament instead of their current 38 seats. The 2010 Parliament will have 325 seats.

And most importantly, Obama and Biden promised the Kurds that the FINAL STATUS OF KIRKUK will be determined in 2010 according to parameters set out in the IRAQI CONSTITUTION.

Our reading of this development is that the FEDERALISM that is offered in the Iraqi Constitution will finally be allowed to play out – that the PROVINCES will be given the opportunity to come together as REGIONS. If this is, in fact, what Obama and Biden have promised the Kurds, then all of our remaining influence will have to be brought into play to force the new government to move forward with FEDERALISM.

The Kurds believe that if given the opportunity under FEDERALISM, Kirkuk Province (At Ta’min Province) will join the existing KURDISTAN REGION, thus giving Kurdistan the complete control over the oil-rich area they have long coveted.

The main obstacle to Federalism has always been the Shia Political Class, because Federalism would dilute the powers of the central government in Baghdad, and Shiites are clearly going to hold onto the majority of Parliamentary seats in the 2010 election, and once again be in a position to appoint the next prime minister. The last thing they are going to do is give up power voluntarily.

We’ve been arguing for years that a SHIA THEOCRACY would attempt to hang onto power, whatever it took.

In this sense, the coming year will be the FINAL SHOWDOWN ON FEDERALISM IN IRAQ. And Obama and Biden must keep their promises and make it happen!

The reform law also calls for OPEN LIST election ballots instead of the CLOSED LIST system that discredited past elections.

THE TRAGEDY

Just as Iraq was celebrating the final approval of the long-awaited Election Reform Law, the country was once again torn apart on Dec. 8th by a series of massive car bombs aimed at government and civilian targets. The new Finance Ministry building was destroyed – the original building having been destroyed in the Aug. 9^th attacks. Also targeted in Baghdad was a complex of federal court buildings as well as the Labor Ministry. Beyond Baghdad, a series of roadside bombs were detonated, killing four American soldiers along with many Iraqi civilians and police officers.

Over 110 people have died from these attacks and hundreds more have been wounded.

Will Iraq ever see an end to this kind of horrific violence? Will every step forward in Iraq be answered with three bloody steps backwards?

The targeting of American patrols with roadside bombs has particularly ominous implications. Are we seeing the beginning of a new insurgency, aimed at us once again?

The thousands of SONS OF IRAQ militiamen have long since become disillusioned with us and our failure to force al-Malaki to make good on his promise to hire them into the security services and our civilian jobs. Could these intentional attacks on our patrols represent the next bloody phase of our entanglement in Iraq’s endless cycles of violence?

WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

Sunni terrorists with al-Qaeda connection have claimed responsibility for the Oct. and Dec. bombings with this announcement: “The young men of Islam…set off to target the citadels of evil, the nests of infidelity and the centers of the rejectionist (Shiite) government. We are determined to uproot this government and pull down the pillars and target its points of strength. The list of targets will not end until the banner of one God is once again raised over Baghdad.”

Sadly, this group represents just one aspect of the multi-headed monster that we have come to know as Islamic fundamentalism.  All of the militant Jihadi groups that assemble under this banner – the many heads of the monster – have one thing in common: They all are capable and willing to use deplorable violence to express their beliefs and to advance their campaigns of terror, even against their fellow Moslems.

In the case of this group, they are waging a cowardly truck-bomb war against innocent civilians in order to destabilize the Shiite government – their fellow Moslems.  During the terrible months of 2005/2006, as ethno-sectarian warfare terrorized Iraqi cities, it was Sunni insurgents exterminating Shiites and Shiite death squads and rogue militias exterminating Sunnis and driving them out of entire communities, creating a refugee crisis that lingers to this day.

Radical Islam is a cancer that will destroy Iraq’s fragile democracy if it is not controlled. There are many failures in Iraq today that have contributed to the horrid success of these bombings. First and foremost is the obvious incompetence and corruption within the security services – the very people who time and again allow these bombers access to their targets.

We know that a number of the security people involved in the Oct. targets have been arrested for accepting bribes and allowing the car bombs through the high-security checkpoints to get right up to their targets.

We also know that the Iraqi security services use a worthless bomb-detecting ‘wand’ at their check points – a piece of junk the Iraqi government paid millions for.

Corruption and incompetence in the Iraqi security establishment have created a deplorable vacuum that allows these terrorists to strike at will. And as their statement says, they intend to continue their bombing campaign.

Six years into this war and occupation, Iraq is still plagued from within by the multi-headed monster of Radical Islam. Reconciliation has failed.

It’s not too late for Obama and Biden to assert our still-considerable influence in Iraq.

Regardless of the Iraqi election results, they must be relentless in making FEDERALISM IN IRAQ a reality. It still represents the most realistic and immediate hope for separating the rival ethno-religious factions in Iraq before they destroy the country from within!

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