MAPPING THE FUTURE OF IRAQ: AUTONOMOUS REGIONS ALLOWED UNDER THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION

As we pointed out in our 2008 PLAN V FOR VICTORY IN IRAQ, the 2005 IRAQ CONSTITUTION provides the option for Provinces to come together to form semi-autonomous REGIONS. The Constitution recognized the existing KURDISTAN REGION as a viable entity, and as such, can sersee thve as a model to emulate.

Kurdistan includes the three Provinces of DAHUK, ARBIL AND SULAYMANIYAH.

The concept of FEDERALISM was incorporated into the political future of Iraq because of the ethno-sectarian violence that was tearing the country apart. The Constitutional writers recognized that the warring factions in Iraq might never reconcile their ethnic, religious and tribal grievances and blood feuds. They provided FEDERALISM as a mechanism to separate these factions to some degree while still maintaining a unified country – the FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF IRAQ.

As we see it in its most basic form, a FEDERAL REPUBLIC would break down into a predominately SUNNI REGION, a SHIA REGION, a MIXED REGION and the existing KURDISTAN. BAGHDAD PROVINCE, with its dense population, could be a REGION in and of itself, with Baghdad City remaining the Iraqi capital.

Why is FEDERALISM so critical right now?

The city of BAGHDAD is the perfect example of why REGIONS must be established, before it is too late.

On Oct. 25, massive suicide car bombs, killing more than 150 and injuring hundreds more, once again shook Baghdad. The Justice Ministry and the Provincial Council Buildings were destroyed as once again, the very heart of the Iraqi government has been targeted. Iraq continues to self-destruct before our eyes!

Until mid-summer, the various factions within the sprawling city were separated by a complicated maze of blast walls and traffic barriers. Al-Malaki started removing these barriers in Aug. as a crass political move to bolster his credentials as the prime minister who brought security to the country.

Shortly afterwards, the latest wave of truck and suicide bombings started up in Baghdad and across the countryside, including the horrific double-truck bombings that destroyed two ministry buildings. Al-Malaki quickly reversed the policy, his reputation seriously damaged as the number of dead and injured dramatically increased.

These latest Oct. bombings will weaken him all the more!

THE GREATER QUESTION THUS BECOMES: As American forces begin to drawn down in earnest, will the ethno-sectarian violence flare up with even greater intensity, laying bare the hollowness of al-Malaki’s security claims?

The terrible bombings that have taken place through Sept. and Oct. indicate to us that Iraq is far from secure, and that the next phase of sectarian civil warfare could already be in motion. The Obama administration must wake up and recognize this terrible possibility as well, and to take actions to head it off.

Two powerful forces are on parallel tracks right now in Iraq: The Jan 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS and the BOMBING AND ASSASSSINATION CAMPAIGN.

Regardless of how the election comes out, and who the next prime minister is, we believe the United States MUST renegotiate the STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT so our troops can remain on hand to deal with an emerging civil war.

The next Parliament MUST move quickly forward with the implementation of FEDERALISM once and for all!

With that in mind, we have taken this opportunity to provide a hypothetical map of THE REGIONS OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF IRAQ. These five regions generally correspond to the main concentrations of SUNNI, SHIITE and MIXED POPULATIONS, as well as recognizing KURDISTAN as the de facto KURDISH REGION.

Like KURDISTAN, these theoretical regions would have the right to establish their own government, judiciary and security forces. And like KURDISTAN, they could have their own regional Constitution as long as it didn’t contradict the national Constitution.

This point is especially critical because Iraq already is facing a CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS in the form of the new KURDISTAN CONSTITUTION, which gives Kurdish courts the right to declare Kurdish Law superior to Iraq Law, if a conflict arises,

The Iraqi Constitution allows for the formation of REGIONS, but it does not mandate it! It is a Constitutional choice and option for like-minded Provinces, should they decide to come together.

We not only see the value in REGIONS, we see the absolute necessity of it!

The national government has abdicated its responsibility to implement FEDERALISM and we must call them on it. Two many critical issues have gone unresolved in Iraq for far too long, and FEDERALISM IS AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.

IF this issue is pushed off until after the election, and then ignored by the new parliament and prime minister, and the evolving civil war reaches critical mass, the possible scenarios are all terrible – for Iraq and us as well.

• As chaos once again grips the countryside, a MILITARY COUP could topple the government and a military leader could assume dictatorial powers.
• A civil war could degenerate into general anarchy, like SOMALIA.
• Neighboring countries could send troops across the borders: Saudi Arabia to defend their fellow Sunnis, Iran to defend their fellow Shiites.  The entire region could plunge into upheaval, with American forces trapped in the middle.
• KURDISTAN could declare full independence and claim the oil fields around KIRKUK as their own, setting off a conflict with Turkey.

OUR MAP OF REGIONS represents the most realistic chance for avoiding a complete breakdown of Iraqi social order. As the recent cycle of bombings demonstrates, Iraqi society is violent and fragile and unstable. And we can clearly see that the more our military pulls back, the worse it gets. The Success of the Surge is falling apart.

We must FIRST suspend the STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT. We must then put all available pressure on the new Iraqi government to move quickly forward with FEDERALISM so these warring factions can separate into secure REGIONS.

OUR MAP OF REGIONS illustrates a peaceful possible future for Iraq.

This map will save Iraq by creating its future, like its glorious past, as the sister city of Babylon that is pictured in the Jan./Feb. 2010 of The National Interest (inside front cover).

With the powerful continued stewardship of Iraq by both America and the UN, we can create Iraq’s new future that will again give it the ancient glory of Baghdad and Babylon.

America and the United Nations must except the continuing partnership and stewardship with and of Iraq for the benefits of their entire population, the harmony of the Middle East – and a model for other countries in the world to follow.

The future belongs to us – but only if we stay together continuously as partners dedicated to the power of human intelligence and cooperation…

Here’s to our mutual success!

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