Your Future Beckons — What are you doing to affect the Outcome?

Iraqi soldiers inspect the site of a car bomb attack in al-Qahira neighborhood in Baghdad, Iraq on 8 December 2009. At least 112 were killed and 197 others injured in the wave of blasts that ripped through the Iraqi capital earlier today, police said

THE SUCCESS:

After many weeks of intense sectarian conflict and bitter negotiations, the IRAQI PARLIAMENT has finally approved the long-awaited ELECTION REFORM LAW. These reforms were essential if the 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS were to have any legitimacy.

Without the reforms that have just been incorporated into the new law, the country faced the very real possibility that major ethnigroups would boycott the elections, setting the stage for a renewal of the 2006 civil war.

The elections are now tentatively scheduled for March 6, almost two months behind the original Jan. 12 date. If this schedule does not stand, a CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS will ensue and the current government will automatically dissolve.

The reform law was originally passed in early November, but Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, vetoed it. He demanded more representation for Sunnis living abroad, which number well over three million. The Kurds in turn demanded more representation for minorities in the disputed Northern Territories around Kirkuk.

The impasse these new demands created lead to intense American and UN involvement to break the deadlock and avoid the Constitutional crisis of a dissolved government.

Without the reform laws, the High Electoral Commission was paralyzed and unable to prepare for the elections. This is not a process that can be rushed to completion, especially without a firm election date to work around.

We know that both President Obama and Vice President Biden got involved by talking directly with Massoud Barzani. The Kurds had two other demands that have been met to their satisfaction – for now.

The Kurds have been pushing for a new census in the Northern Territories – the border regions between Kurdistan and northern Iraq – because they believe it will reflect a greater number of Kurds and Kurdish sympathizers then the 2005 census. They have now been promised a 2010 CENSUS, to be monitored by the UN.

The Kurds will now have 43 seats in Parliament instead of their current 38 seats. The 2010 Parliament will have 325 seats.

And most importantly, Obama and Biden promised the Kurds that the FINAL STATUS OF KIRKUK will be determined in 2010 according to parameters set out in the IRAQI CONSTITUTION.

Our reading of this development is that the FEDERALISM that is offered in the Iraqi Constitution will finally be allowed to play out – that the PROVINCES will be given the opportunity to come together as REGIONS. If this is, in fact, what Obama and Biden have promised the Kurds, then all of our remaining influence will have to be brought into play to force the new government to move forward with FEDERALISM.

The Kurds believe that if given the opportunity under FEDERALISM, Kirkuk Province (At Ta’min Province) will join the existing KURDISTAN REGION, thus giving Kurdistan the complete control over the oil-rich area they have long coveted.

The main obstacle to Federalism has always been the Shia Political Class, because Federalism would dilute the powers of the central government in Baghdad, and Shiites are clearly going to hold onto the majority of Parliamentary seats in the 2010 election, and once again be in a position to appoint the next prime minister. The last thing they are going to do is give up power voluntarily.

We’ve been arguing for years that a SHIA THEOCRACY would attempt to hang onto power, whatever it took.

In this sense, the coming year will be the FINAL SHOWDOWN ON FEDERALISM IN IRAQ. And Obama and Biden must keep their promises and make it happen!

The reform law also calls for OPEN LIST election ballots instead of the CLOSED LIST system that discredited past elections.

THE TRAGEDY

Just as Iraq was celebrating the final approval of the long-awaited Election Reform Law, the country was once again torn apart on Dec. 8th by a series of massive car bombs aimed at government and civilian targets. The new Finance Ministry building was destroyed – the original building having been destroyed in the Aug. 9^th attacks. Also targeted in Baghdad was a complex of federal court buildings as well as the Labor Ministry. Beyond Baghdad, a series of roadside bombs were detonated, killing four American soldiers along with many Iraqi civilians and police officers.

Over 110 people have died from these attacks and hundreds more have been wounded.

Will Iraq ever see an end to this kind of horrific violence? Will every step forward in Iraq be answered with three bloody steps backwards?

The targeting of American patrols with roadside bombs has particularly ominous implications. Are we seeing the beginning of a new insurgency, aimed at us once again?

The thousands of SONS OF IRAQ militiamen have long since become disillusioned with us and our failure to force al-Malaki to make good on his promise to hire them into the security services and our civilian jobs. Could these intentional attacks on our patrols represent the next bloody phase of our entanglement in Iraq’s endless cycles of violence?

WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

Sunni terrorists with al-Qaeda connection have claimed responsibility for the Oct. and Dec. bombings with this announcement: “The young men of Islam…set off to target the citadels of evil, the nests of infidelity and the centers of the rejectionist (Shiite) government. We are determined to uproot this government and pull down the pillars and target its points of strength. The list of targets will not end until the banner of one God is once again raised over Baghdad.”

Sadly, this group represents just one aspect of the multi-headed monster that we have come to know as Islamic fundamentalism.  All of the militant Jihadi groups that assemble under this banner – the many heads of the monster – have one thing in common: They all are capable and willing to use deplorable violence to express their beliefs and to advance their campaigns of terror, even against their fellow Moslems.

In the case of this group, they are waging a cowardly truck-bomb war against innocent civilians in order to destabilize the Shiite government – their fellow Moslems.  During the terrible months of 2005/2006, as ethno-sectarian warfare terrorized Iraqi cities, it was Sunni insurgents exterminating Shiites and Shiite death squads and rogue militias exterminating Sunnis and driving them out of entire communities, creating a refugee crisis that lingers to this day.

Radical Islam is a cancer that will destroy Iraq’s fragile democracy if it is not controlled. There are many failures in Iraq today that have contributed to the horrid success of these bombings. First and foremost is the obvious incompetence and corruption within the security services – the very people who time and again allow these bombers access to their targets.

We know that a number of the security people involved in the Oct. targets have been arrested for accepting bribes and allowing the car bombs through the high-security checkpoints to get right up to their targets.

We also know that the Iraqi security services use a worthless bomb-detecting ‘wand’ at their check points – a piece of junk the Iraqi government paid millions for.

Corruption and incompetence in the Iraqi security establishment have created a deplorable vacuum that allows these terrorists to strike at will. And as their statement says, they intend to continue their bombing campaign.

Six years into this war and occupation, Iraq is still plagued from within by the multi-headed monster of Radical Islam. Reconciliation has failed.

It’s not too late for Obama and Biden to assert our still-considerable influence in Iraq.

Regardless of the Iraqi election results, they must be relentless in making FEDERALISM IN IRAQ a reality. It still represents the most realistic and immediate hope for separating the rival ethno-religious factions in Iraq before they destroy the country from within!

The Iraqi government recently reported that 85,000 civilians were killed between 2004 and 2008 during the worst of the sectarian violence that pushed the country to the brink of full-scale civil war. Thousands more were seriously injured.

On Oct. 25, two massive car bombs destroyed the JUSTICE MINISTRY AND PROVINCIAL COUNCIL BUILDING in downtown Baghdad, killing over 150 and seriously injuring hundreds more.

Once again, these bombers managed to get past multiple levels of so-called tight Iraqi security to successfully attack their targets.

In the past few months, we have witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of horrible truck bombings and suicide bombers in Iraq. These bombings have been directed at both government and civilian targets, including the terrible double truck-bomb attack against the Interior and Finance Ministries in Baghdad in late August.

These bombings have killed and injured hundreds, and they serve to underscore this ESSENTIAL TRUTH about Iraq’s future: WITHOUT GENUINE SECURITY IN THE STREETS, the citizens of Iraq will never have a peaceful and democratic society!

Without GENUINE SECURITY, true RECONCILIATION between the rival factions in Iraq will be challenged and threatened at every turn, and eventually destroyed altogether – a failure we cannot allow to happen, after all we have sacrificed along with the Iraqis!

The IRAQI SECURITY FORCES have made excellent progress over the years under our military’s inspired leadership and direction, but much more remains to be done at all levels of society – Federal, Provincial and District.

Car Bomb Explodes

These recent bombings are a threat to the successes we have accomplished, and they undermine the confidence that average citizens have in their security forces.

If this level of violence continues, and escalates as our forces draw down, it poses an even greater threat to the upcoming Jan. 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.

To stem the slide into greater anarchy in the streets, we have identified a number of critical flaws in the SECURITY STRUCTURE in Iraq that must be addressed now! These are systemic problems we can still assert our considerable power to correct. And if corrected, could go a long way to thwarting the escalation of violence.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE – WHAT NEEDS CORRECTION!

• The national government is long overdue to incorporate the SONS OF IRAQ into the various levels of security forces, as promised. These Sunni militiamen – former insurgents numbering almost 100,000 – banded together under the leadership of their various tribal elders and worked with our military to defeat al-Qaeda in Iraq. Their reward is long overdue. And they are running out of patience!We transferred the responsibility for paying the SOI over to the national government with the assurances that a majority of them would be rolled into the security forces at all levels. The failure to follow through on this agreement could soon come back to haunt al-Malaki’s government in the form of a deadly and experienced insurgency aimed against his authority, his credibility and his chances for remaining prime minister!

• SECULAR SECURITY FORCES are essential if the citizens are to believe that laws are being enforced on an even basis, and not according to RELIGIOUS or ETHNIC IDENTITIES. Without fairness, there can be no mutual respect, and without that, Iraq’s factions will never seriously reconcile with one another. Security forces MUST be above reproach!In particular, neither RELIGION nor ETHNICITY should ever be used to decide promotions, assignments, rank, salaries or demotions and punishments.

• CORRUPTION has long been a corrosive practice within the security forces and it must be rooted out once and for all. In particular, the INTERIOR MINISTRY has been long recognized as a hotbed of cronyisms, nepotism and bribery. If corruption is tolerated at the very top level, it will become endemic down the chain of command.

• THE COUNTRY COMES FIRST! Iraq’s long and complicated history includes a major roadblock to success – TRIBALISM. Iraq’s security forces at all levels MUST put the good of the country over TRIBAL LOYALTIES. Tribalism represents a pernicious threat to national unity and national identity and must be negated or isolated. If members of the armed forces or police put loyalty to tribal leaders or clans over their responsibilities to enforce the laws evenly, the IRAQ CONSTITUTION will become meaningless, and the country will pull apart at the seams, either peacefully or violently.

• All of these critical changes and improvements come into play as we approach the crucial Jan. 2010 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. The security forces must all be onboard in assuring a fair and transparent election campaign and voting day across the country, for all citizens.It will be devastating if Iraq experiences the massive voter fraud we have recently witnessed in the Afghan elections. The security forces must protect the voters from election day violence at the very least. But they must also aggressively seek out and expose any and all indications of impending fraud or voter intimidation. They must insure an honorable election!

If meaningful NATIONAL RECONCILIATION doesn’t take place in the security forces, for all Iraqis to see and appreciate, then it will never take place in the society at large. If the citizens do not believe that the laws are being enforced evenly and fairly, across the ethnic and religious spectrum, they will never truly come together as a country, and they will most certainly never replace tribal or ethnic loyalties with loyalty to country!

It is for this basis reason that we forcefully emphasize how critical it is for Iraq that the security forces be well trained, honest, evenhanded, nonsectarian and beyond corruption!

This is a tall order to accomplish in any democratic society – but imperative! In Iraq, where democratic institutions are fragile and incomplete, it is the most critical issue they face!

We must use our considerable influence to reform and improve the Iraqi security forces before the old habits of corruption, nepotism and tribalism become imbedded forever.

WITHOUT SECURITY IN THE STREETS, THERE WILL NEVER BE A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME IN IRAQ!

WITHOUT CAPABLE AND HONEST SECURITY FORCES, THE STREETS OF IRAQ WILL NEVER BE SAFE

The continuing horror of terrorist bombings

This was our cautiously optimistic opinion back then! It is still our opinion today!

WE ARE NOW ADVOCATING THE PEACEFUL DIVISION OF IRAQ INTO FIVE INDEPENDENT REGIONS OR PROVINCES – NORTHERN, WESTERN, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND CAPITAL REGIONS – TO COME TOGETHER IN THEIR CAPITAL CITY OF BAGHDAD!

The sobering reality of the indisputable and incompatible differences between these factions in Iraq has forced us to come to a new conclusion. While most of America turns away from Iraq and concentrates on Afghanistan, we have held our attention on this unfinished war, and what we see and understand about Iraq this summer does not bode well for a sustainable peaceful outcome – Unless we make this change and America and the U.N. can become the overriding Stewards of Iraq… to work in concert with Iraq’s own parliament.

The very problems that now threaten to blow Iraq apart at the seams are the very same unresolved problems we outlined in detail in PLAN V. Let us not delude ourselves or the citizens of Iraq any longer.

Like a gathering storm, these problems will overwhelm Iraq and plunge it back into sectarian, ethnic and tribal chaos if drastic changes are not made.

THE ESSENTIAL UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS WE ALL RECOGNIZE – THE FOUNDATIONS OF FAILURE

#1 THE FAILURE OF ELECTORAL REFORM:

The purple finger of an Iraqi voter

A secular democratic country cannot survive when elections are buried under the suffocating weight of religious affiliations. After two major flawed elections, Iraq still refuses to embrace the concept of THE SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE, or even the concept of THE SEPARATION OF TRIBE AND STATE.

A SHIA THEOCRACY is beginning to form in Baghdad and that will kill forever whatever semblance of democracy Iraq still has.

The al-Makaki government recently asked Parliament to legalize drastic new censorship laws. What more proof do we need?

#2 THE FAILURE OF RECONCILIATION:

After six chaotic and deadly years of ethno-sectarian violence, Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds still put their tribal and religious loyalties above the good of the country. A lasting unity of purpose and identity within any population is impossible under these circumstances. Iraq is failing itself!

Lee Hamilton
Former Representative from Indiana and key member of the Iraq Study Group

As former U.S. Representative Lee Hamilton so correctly put it in PLAN V : “If the Iraqis do not reconcile, all the troops in the world will not provide security

In the West, we continuously fail to understand the concept of religious vengeance and tribal grievances and what powerful and destructive forces they can be within a society – especially a society that has been traumatized by a brutal dictator who played ethnic factions against one another. We fail to understand that in the Middle East, angry memories and blood grievances last forever, The obsession for tribal or religious revenge is a passion that never dies.

The blood feud between the Shia and the Sunnis goes all the back to the treacherous days after WW1 when England and France forced their will on the provinces of the defeated Ottoman Empire in Mesopotamia and created the artificial country we call Iraq. So, too, does the animosity between non-Arab Kurds in the northern mountain provinces and the secular Arabs in the south, Sunnis and Shiites. Iraq was pasted together from the ashes of the defeated Ottoman Empire. It has never been a legitimate country.

This misbegotten creation of a country never developed a true identity throughout the 20^th century. It’s varied religious and ethnic populations never came together as Iraqis – as equal citizens under one flag with a common unifying loyalty.

Our great conceit was in thinking we could ignore this history of perpetual antagonisms and hostilities between Iraq’s competing factions and simply invade the country and create a functioning democracy in short order. Our ignorance of the history of these people blinded us to the impossibility of our ambitions for Iraq.

A MIRACLE OF RECONCILATION IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN IRAQ NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE WISH IT TO BE!

Bringing down the statue of Saddam

Vice President Dick Cheney, in his “infinite oversight”, told us before the invasion began that we would be greeted as liberators. Instead of that outcome, Shiites and Sunnis alike launched insurgencies against our military forces and attacked and killed many of our civilian reconstruction workers. They blew up the UN headquarters in Baghdad, killing Sergio de Mello, the top UN envoy in Iraq, along with many other dedicated UN diplomats. This bombing in the early months of our occupation was a cowardly act that foreshadowed the carnage and violence of the years to come.

Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz told us that Iraqi oil would pay for the war and reconstruction. Instead of that outcome, we have already spent almost 700 billion dollars on the war and occupation with no end in sight.


After the invasion, when resistance against our forces continued, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told us that it was just the work of a few “dead-enders.” Instead of that outcome, a lethal insurgency killed almost 4500 of our soldiers and seriously injured many thousands more over the past six years. They attacked the Green Zone with rockets, shot down our military helicopters, terrorized the roads with IEDs, and brutalized their fellow citizens.


And finally, there was the ultimate demonstration of ignorance and arrogance, as President Bush stood on the aircraft carrier deck in front of a huge banner that read “Mission Accomplished.”


Instead of that outcome, we sank deeper and deeper into the quicksand pit of Iraq, battling a lethal insurgency while Iraqis went about the terrible business of killing one another. Bush left office six years later, handing his “Unaccomplished War” over to President Obama. Bush handed over a war without end!

THE FAILURE TO CREATE OIL LAWS – JUSTICE DENIED!

The central government has had six years to insure that the revenue from Iraq’s great oil wealth will be distributed evenly and honorably among all the citizens, not just those who control the Oil Ministry or surround the oil and natural gas fields. They have failed to do so.

Members of the Kurdish parliament read a draft of the proposed Constitution which claims disputed natural resources in Erbil on June 24, 2009.

Nouri al Maliki
Iraq's Prime Minister

This demonstrates to us that the Iraqi government is incapable and unwilling to do what’s best for the whole country. The Kurds are doing what’s best for them while al-Malaki is trying to solidify his Shia dominance by negotiating oil exploration contracts by fiat.

The Iraqi Parliament has demonstrated neither the guts nor the vision to legislate OIL REVENUE SHARING LAWS. Iraq will never move in the direction of lasting unity without a fair and honest distribution of the oil and gas wealth.

Their failure to do this will doom the naive notion of Iraqi unity!

	INDEPENDENCE…
	AND THEN AN IRAQ FEDERATED REPUBLIC!

At GOALS FOR AMERICANS, we have come to the conclusion that the religious and ethnic makeup of Iraq is too fractured and too mired in ancient tribal hostilities to ever hold together on its own.

We have concluded that it is in the best interests of everyone that Iraq be peacefully divided into FIVE SEPARATE REGIONS (OR STATES) that reflect the five most harmonious groupings of the various populations and resources in Iraq. The borders of these regions (states) of course follow the various boundaries of the existing 18 provinces divided, also, with regard to resources and historical considerations.

WE HAVE ALREADY DONE THIS IN OUR PLAN V !

The Iraqis can not be trusted to work together for the common good of all their citizens!

THE BAGHDAD BOMBINGS ON AUG 20 SHOULD BE OUR WAKE UP CALL. TIME IS RUNNING SHORT. IT IS TIME TO WORK TOWARDS THE PEACEFUL ARRANGEMENT OF IRAQ INTO FIVE REGIONS, EACH ONE MADE UP OF EXISTING PROVINCES IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE IRAQ CONSTITUTION.

OBAMA MUST support this promissing concept that can definitely create the much needed democratic arrangement of its existing 18 provinces into a most harmoneous grouping of States for the new Republic.

AMERICA & UNITED NATIONS MUST BECOME STEWARDS OF THE NEW IRAQ FEDERATED REPUBLIC UNTIL THEY CAN STAND ALONE!

IT IS THEIR ONLY HOPE — IT IS THEIR VERY BEST OPTION!

Vice President Biden, now President Obama's Special Envoy to Iraq introduced an Amendment in 2007, written with Leslie Gelb, on Federalism in Iraq that is similar to our Plan V.

In Sept. of 2007, while the Iraq war was spinning out of control with no end in sight, then-Senator Joe Biden of Deleware introduced an amendment to the 2008 defense authorization bill entitled “Sense of Congress on Federalism in Iraq.”

During those violent times, there was no leadership coming out of the White House nor from the new al-Malaki government in Baghdad. The ethno-sectarian chaos in Iraq was filling the streets with the dead and injured on a daily basis. American casualties were mounting. The war was out of control, and the Bush administration was doing nothing but hunkering down and attacking anyone who disagreed with them.

Senator Biden saw the solution within Iraq’s own Constitution: A FEDERAL SYSTEM. (We have included the full text of this amendment) He believed – and still does – that the only way to separate the warring factions was to provide them with a degree of independence – of autonomy!

THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION IS CLEAR ON THIS SUBJECT!

SECTION ONE, Article #1 states: The Republic of Iraq is a single FEDERAL independent and fully sovereign state….

SECTION FIVE, Article #116 states: The Federal System in the Republic of Iraq is made up of a decentralized capitol, REGIONS and governorates (provinces)….

ARTICLE #119 states: One or more governorates (provinces) shall have the right to organize into a region…

The salvation for Iraq was already there in the Constitution. Senator Biden and his many bi-partisan co-sponsors wanted Congress to go on record as supporting this solution. Their intention was to send a loud message to the White House that Congress was out of patience with the Bush administration’s do-nothing policies in Iraq. Biden lead the charge to publicly demonstrate that Iraq had a solution to the spiraling violence, if they would only follow through on their own constitutional requirements.

THE BIDEN AMENDMENT was approved by Congress as a non-binding resolution.

The Bush administration and the al-Malaki government immediately denounced the Biden Amendment and slandered it by calling it a ‘partition plan’ that would destroy Iraq.

Nothing was ever done to advance the cause of FEDERALISM in Iraq!

Today we see the results of their failed leadership. The Bush administration is to blame for not forcing al-Malaki to do the right thing, and al-Malaki’s government should be condemned for not honoring their Constitutional responsibilities.

Iraq is experiencing more and more violence in the cities and in the north. And national reconciliation, unity and security are still distant dreams.

The circle comes fully around! Joe Biden is now our Vice President, and he recently was appointed by President Obama to be his Special Envoy to Iraq.

Biden now has the unique opportunity to throw the considerable weight of the presidency into this issue, and we expect him to once again lead the charge for FEDERALISM IN IRAQ.

Read the Complete Transcript Here

Feisal Istrabadi

Ambassador Feisal Istrabadi resigned last August from his post as Iraq’s Deputy Ambassador at the United Nations. Prior to his diplomatic appointment in September 2003 he was appointed legal advisor to the Iraqi Minister for Foreign Affairs and lead the negotiations that resulted in the June 2004 U.N. Security Council resolution recognizing the reassertion of Iraqi sovereignty. Ambassador Istrabadi was the principal legal drafter of Iraq’s interim constitution, as well as of the Law of Administration of the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period and the associated Bill of Fundamental Rights

Ambassador Istrabadi was born in Virginia just before his family moved back to Baghdad. In 1970 he and his family moved permanently to the United States. He attended Indiana University receiving a bachelor’s degree in chemistry and then Indiana University School of Law receiving a J.D. law degree. In 2002, Ambassador Istrabadi joined the State Department’s Future of Iraq Project that focused on post-war planning for Iraq.

The Istrabadi family has been living in Iraq for almost 700 years. His grandfather, Hajj Mahmoud Al-Istrabadi, was elected to the Constituent Assembly in 1923 that drafted the Permanent Constitution of Iraq in 1925.

Ambassador Istrabadi was interviewed by GfA in March 2008.

QUOTES from Ambassador Istrabadi

“I may have said in frustration in October that this government must go. But the fact is it isn’t going to go… That being the case we need to allow the Iraqi political class to make its own judgement as to what is politically feasible and what is politically desireable to do at this time.”

“This is a failure of the American political class. I think what you need is some straight talk with the people of the United States. I think the American public is open to that, but it has to occur. I think that those who have a view of the American public as incapable of carrying on a reasoned conversation about a vital national security issue, I think they are wrong.

“The obvious solution…is diplomacy; direct talks between the U.S. and Iran and the U.S. and Syria on substantive matters.”

“The State of Iraq at this moment in its history, and I think for a good long time, has to operate on a very different basis that it has over the prior 35 years. We have to be in a period of introspection and rebuilding our own country which requires that we be on good terms with all of our neighbors. We have real issues with all of our neighbors that we are going to have to resolve amicably.”

“We cannot afford to be caught up in one or another of even our closest friends fights with any of our neighbors. We have six neighbors. We have to have good relations with each of them and all of them…keeping in mind that I’m a firm believer in the Ameican saying that strong fences make good neighbors.”

General David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker

In April, the commanding General David Petraeus, and the Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, will once again report through public testimony before the Congress to the American people.

It is their job to carry out and report about policy. It is the duty and responsibility of our elected official in Washington to act on this advice and to change course when this is necessary.

Even though we are in the final months of the Bush/Cheney presidency, we should not allow this administration to simply sit back, run out the clock, and to pass the monumental problem of Iraq on to the next president.

This is correctly considered to be “Bush’s War” – the title of the recent four and a half hour PBS Frontline documentary broadcast on the recent 5th anniversary of the invasion. We should hold the president and his top advisors accountable for every remaining day they remain in power – to demand that they remain engaged, involved and open to new and bold ideas!

The Iraqi Constitution that was approved in October 2005 was supposed to be a “work in progress,” but it hasn’t turned out that way.

The Constitution was supposed to rally the Iraqi people together under a single blueprint for a peaceful and prosperous future. But the Constitution remains problematic and incomplete, and it has failed to pull the country together. That stark reality is starting to unravel and reverse the security gains we have so painfully accomplished over the past year.

U.S. troops conduct a joint patrol with the Iraqi Police, near Sadr City, Baghdad.

The recent violence in the Basra region and Sadr City, the sprawling slum within Baghdad, could very well represent the beginning of the next civil war within Iraq. This deadly confrontation, now in another fragile cease-fire, threatens to again flare back up as an all-consuming fight between warring Shiite factions for control of the oil-rich Basra region.

The Constitution is clear on some points but dangerously vague on others – which explains in large part why the political culture in Iraq is so dreadfully flawed!

ARTICLE #1 states that ‘The Republic of Iraq is a single federal, independent and fully sovereign state in which the system of government is republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic, and this Constitution is a guarantor of the unity of Iraq.

The “unfinished business” aspect of the Constitution involves, among other things, the final status of the oil-rich region of Kirkuk in the Kurdish region, the nature of FEDERALISM, as defined in SECTION FIVE, Articles 116/122, and “final powers status” of the presidency and the prime minister’s office.

The Sunnis were persuaded to sign onto the Constitution only after they were guaranteed that these issues would be resolved through Constitutional amendments down the road. But like many other critical issues facing Iraq, ‘down the road” never happened. At the moment, because it’s convenient and profitable for them, many in the Sunni community are holding their fire and working with American forces. But that could change dramatically if they run out of patience, and decide and believe that we are complicit in the stalled Constitutional review process – the unfinished business.

A Constitutional Review is one of the original 13 BENCHMARKS or MILESTONES laid out by President Bush over a year ago, most of which remain unaccomplished. This was the very basis for sending more troops to Iraq, i.e. “the surge”.

In early 2007 the 31-member CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW COMMITTEE was established to come up with a package of amendments for the Constitution.

But to date, this committee has yet to make any real progress in their mission, and the deadlines for making recommendations to Parliament have been pushed back time and time again.

Even if the Committee ever comes up with a list of Constitutional amendments, the path forward is daunting. The Parliament must vote for the package of amendments as a whole, not individually, and this would require a majority vote. The package would then need to be approved in a public referendum, and then it would need at least a two-thirds majority approval in at least sixteen of the eighteen provinces.

FEDERALISM DENIED

Article 116 of SECTION FIVE of the Constitution says that the federal system in the republic of Iraq is made up of a decentralized capital, regions and governorates, as well as local administrations. In other words, Baghdad as the capitol of the central government, semi-autonomous ‘regions” and the “provinces” that comprise these regions.

Article 117 of SECTION FIVE recognizes KURDISTAN as a federal region.

Article 118 of SECTION FIVE spells out the nature of a federal republic. Article 118 instructs the Council of Representatives – Parliament – to establish a law that defines the executive procedures to form regions, and to do so within the first six months after its first session. But that was over two years ago and nothing of a sort has happened in Parliament.

Article 119 of SECTION FIVE says that one or more governorates – provinces – can organize into a “region.”

Article 120 of SECTION FIVE instructs these regions to come up with their own Constitutions, as long as they don’t contradict the national Constitution.

But this entire process – one that was at the heart of the much-heralded 2005 election — has been denied to the Iraqi people largely because the al-Malaki government, with our tacit approval, has refused to act.

BENCHMARKS NOT MET

Over a year ago, President Bush acknowledged the political failures in Iraq, and with the agreement of the Iraqi government, came up with “18 BENCHMARKS FOR PROGRESS”. These benchmarks were to be the yardstick by which we evaluated political and reconciliation progress in Iraq.

But the report card to date from Iraq is dismal – limited progress has been made on only three of the 18 benchmarks so far.

Because of this inertia, the central government has been steadily losing influence and respect, and power has been devolving down to the local levels in a random and chaotic process.

Explosions of violence like recent developments in Basra and Baghdad have exposed the fractured and fragile nature of Iraqi society. This dangerous trend will only continue and accelerate if the “unfinished business” isn’t corrected by an urgent joint effort by the White House and Baghdad.

WHAT MUST NOW BE ACCOMPLISHED

Recently the Iraqi Parliament passed the PROVINCIAL POWERS LAW, which provides for provincial elections in October 2008. The few success stories we have seen, however tenuous, have occurred at the local level, especially in Anbar Province. If power continues to flow from top to bottom, these elections could help as much as anything to minimize violence and contain the process within democratic parameters.

The UNITED NATIONS ASSISTANCE MISSION OF IRAQ (UNAMI) is on board to help the IRAQI HIGH ELECTORAL COMMISSION make sure the October elections are organized and accomplished in an honest, professional and transparent manner. We must not allow flare-ups of regional violence like we saw in Basra to derail or postpone these elections, as critical as they are to Iraq’s democratic trajectory.

If Iraq is to hold together as a country, it’s government and its people must first pull together to accomplish these two primary goals: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM and PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS.

THE OIL LAWS

Corruption and waste with the oil wells

Iraq is blessed with an abundance of oil and natural gas. Con-servative estimates give Iraq about 115 billion barrels of proven reserves, and it is possible that the unexplored desert region in the west might very well contain an additional 50 to 80 billion barrels. If properly utilized, this great prize could rebuild Iraq to its former Mesopotamian splendor and beyond. It could once again become the Crown Jewel of Enlightenment – a beacon of prosperity and hope in a troubled turbulent region.

One of the original Benchmarks called for comprehensive HYDROCARBON LAWS to be enacted. Without this legal framework in place, Iraq will continue to be rudderless, unfocused, and forever prone to backsliding into civil war.

These laws will cover various hotly contested issues that can no longer be avoided and delayed:

• The powers invested in the Oil and Gas Council within the central government
• The powers within the reconstituted National Oil Company
• Equitable revenue sharing among the provincial populations and regional governments
• How will exploration and extraction contracts be awarded to foreign companies?
• Who will finance and manage the energy industry’s infrastructure reconstruction needs
• The final status of the oil region around Kirkuk

Currently producing just over two million barrels of oil a day, Iraq’s oil industry is plagued with antiquated technology, a crumbling and poorly maintained infrastructure, sabotage, corruption and an endemic shortage of skilled workers.

A failed electricity grid

Furthermore, there are other critical INFRASTRUCTURE IMPERATIVES that include access to clean water for drinking, cooking and bathing, sewage treatment systems, a reliable and efficient electrical grid and public transportation.

After five years of our occupation, according to the International Committee Of The Red Cross, Iraq has one of the most critical humanitarian situations in the world today. Basic issues of security, public health and the educational system must be urgent priorities and we must do everything possible to both encourage and prod the Iraqi government to deal with these critical issues immediately.

The vast refugee crisis continues to burden the entire region, with about 2 million internally displaced citizens and another 2 million having fled beyond the Iraqi borders.

In short, all of these critical issues and needs can be addressed and fully funded, but not until Iraq establishes security, amends the Constitution and advances federalism, moves forward with the October elections and passes the Oil Laws.

The Bush/Cheney administration has had plenty of time to work with the Iraqi government to move forward on these basic issues. We must impress on them that the time for VOLUNTARY COMPLIANCE WITH THE 18 BENCHMARKS IS OVER! We must hold their feet to the fire this time!

ENFORCEMENT OF OPTIONS – THE IRAQ PARLIAMENT’S PRICE FOR NON-PERFORMANCE

Moving from the present state of political paralysis in Iraq to a more inclusive, peaceful and hopeful future is not going to be simple or easy. Even so, we now owe a maximum effort to the people of Iraq who have suffered so terribly. Here are some possible enforcement options we should consider in order to credibly demonstrate our seriousness of purpose, both to ourselves and to the Iraqi authorities:

• WITHHOLD reconstruction funds from future supplemental budgets
• FREEZE current Reconstruction projects and funding
• WITHDRAW Regional Reconstruction Teams in the provinces
• CEASE joint anti-insurgency operations with Iraqi security forces
• SUSPEND training of Iraqi security, army and police forces
• SUSPEND arm shipments to Iraqi armed forces and police
• EXPELL the Iraqi government from the security of our GREEN ZONE
• ESTABLISH A FIXED TIMELINE for our withdrawal of military forces.

Taking such steps should not be done hastily without awareness of the possible consequences. But at the same time, refusing to seriously demonstrate our resolve and determination, thus allowing the current, chaotic and unacceptable situation to continue, will not lead to a peaceful and prosperous Iraq, will not accomplish our stated goals, and may well lead to Iraq becoming a failed state, difficult if not impossible to put back together again.

IN CONCLUSION – IRAQ’S DESTINY IS GRIM

The STATUS QUO in Iraq today is no longer an acceptable option. Without grasping hold of the situation and making sure the constitutional and political reforms long-deemed necessary actually take place, Iraq could dissolve into civil war and spin out of control in a very short time. Consequently, if the Iraqi government does aggressively move forward this year with these imperative changes, its disintegration is destined to continue quite possibly to the point of no return.

At that time, the most disastrous foreign policy blunder in American history will have come full circle – and this cannot be allowed to happen if there is any way to prevent it.

In its final year, the Bush administration still has time to assert a powerful influence over the developments in Iraq that could result in a resurgent country and the beginnings at least of a new, more peaceful, more stable, and more prosperous Middle East. We have the means. Do we have the wisdom and the will?

The time to positively assert our influence is now. The many mistakes of the past should not and must not deter us from now taking hold of this crisis and resolving it to the benefit of the long-suffering people of Iraq, the people of the United States, and the people of the entire region and world.

Iraq’s Parliament Must Act Now!

Senior Foreign Policy Advisers to all three of the current Presidential Candidates
Left to Right: Lee Feinstein, Clinton National Security Director
Denis McDonough, Obama Foreign Policy Coordinator
Randy Scheunemann, McCain Chief Foreign Policy Advisor

Lee Feinstein – National Security Director – Hillary Clinton for President

Denis McDonough – Foreign Policy Coordinator – Obama for America

Randy Scheunemann – Chief Foreign Policy Advisor – John McCain 2008

During or after watching this discussion and debate with the three senior Foreign Policy Advisers of the leading Presidential candidates we encourage you, if you have not done so already, to review our special 48-page PLAN V For Victory and Peace in Iraq which we presented in recent months to all members of Congress and many leading government officials.

Read the Complete Transcript Here

Laith Kubba is one of the most knowledgeable Iraqis now helping to rebuild his country from positions both in the government and in the private sector. He was one of the founders of the Iraqi National Congress and served on its first Executive Committee and as its spokesman in 1992. From 1993 until 1998 Kubba was the Director of International Relations at the Al Khoei Foundation in London. He has also served on the boards of regional institutions including the Iraq Foundation and the Arab Organization for Human Rights. He has a Bachelors degree from the University of Baghdad 1976 and a Ph.D. from the University of Wales in the United Kingdom.

After the Administration of Iraq by Paul Bremer and the Coalition Provisional Authority, Kubba was the Senior Advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Jaafari and the official spokesman for the newly sovereign Iraqi government in 2005. Kubba currently works in both London and Washington where is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy.

Mr. Kubba was interviewed for GfA on March 14, 2008. In this interview Kubba underscores the main theme in our PLAN V for IRAQ, the critical importance of implementing federalism with substantially more power and authority devolving to the Provinces. Kubba stresses that the Kurdish region may decide at some point to seek more autonomous or even independent status. But the rest of the country must now find ways to restructure Arab Iraq as a truly federal but united State, and this means new political, constitutional and regional arrangements suited to truly rebuilding such a unique country that has suffered such traumatic events in its history.

Laith Kubba Video Below

On the Fifth Anniversary of the Iraq invasion the Reuters news organization has published on-line an interactive multimedia review titled BEARING WITNESS – FIVE YEARS OF THE IRAQ WAR. The following is from Reuters and we link to their impressive efforts:

Through five years of war, a team of 100 Reuters correspondents, photographers, cameramen and support staff has strived to deliver news to the world from Iraq – the most dangerous country for the press. These are their personal stories, bearing witness through half a decade of conflict which has taken the lives of 127 journalists, including seven Reuters colleagues.

• Testimony from journalists who have witnessed each phase of the conflict
• Rich visual timeline charting the major events and turning points
• Interactive maps and graphs following the key trends
• Links to online resources, including live news from Iraq

View now the special Reuters Bearing Witness presentation