Don’t Call Obama’s Bluff

President Obama deserves America’s applause and support for his decision not to attack Iran until all else fails.  He wants to give economic sanctions and international diplomacy a chance to work.  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama agreed in their meeting in the Oval Office on March 5, 2012, that Iran must be stopped from building a nuclear bomb.  They disagree strongly, however, on when and what should cause such a drastic and irreversible military attack.  Netanyahu wants to jump the gun.  He said, “Israel must reserve the right to defend itself!” and might attack Iran as early as this Spring.  President Obama warned Iran that no options are off the table and advised it not to call his bluff, but still wants to use a military strike only as a last-ditch effort.

The United States and the European Union have agreed to cut Iran off from the Society for Worldwide International Financial Transactions, SWIFT, the global provider of secured financial operations.  This cut-off would be more effective than any economic sanctions could be because it would prevent Iran from doing business with any other nation on earth.  SWIFT has agreed to cut off Iran and is only waiting for the regulations that the EU is preparing now.

Most Americans support President Obama’s efforts to not start another war in the Middle East.  Most Israelis do not support Netanyahu in making a preemptive strike without the full assistance of the United States.  Israel has only enough military power to make one strike on Iran, not conduct an all-out war.  Iran would certainly retaliate not only against Israel but against the United States too.  All of our ships in the Persian Gulf and our embassies around the world would be in particular danger.  Israel certainly has the right to defend itself but not make a preemptive attack, which would be offensive not defensive.  Such an attack would cause Iran to take military action not prevent it.  Israel does not have the right to put the rest of the world in jeopardy before other measures have time to work.

Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, one of Iran’s major nuclear enrichment plants, is 260 feet deep under a mountain near Tehran.  America has the strongest biggest bunker-busting bombs on earth but they can penetrate only 200 feet.  Such a bomb would not destroy Fordow but would make it unusable.  Israel does not have such a bomb, nor does any other nation.  Netanyahu needs to remember how limited Israel’s military power is.  He should not start a war and then ask Obama to finish it.

Netanyahu needs to consider all of the consequences of an offensive attack on Iran.  Obama promised him that the United States has Israel’s back, but Netanyahu should not start a horrible war in the Middle East on his own.  He too should not call Obama’s bluff.

Republican Presidential Candidates Support War With Iran!

Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich support Israeli Prime Minister in his desire to strike Iran soon — before economic sanctions and financial cut-off by SWIFT have a chance to work.  (Ron Paul, who is more of a Libertarian than a Republican, is an isolationist who would not support a war anywhere.)  All of the candidates except Paul addressed the American Israel Public Action Committee (AIPAC) on March 6, 2012.  They each appealed to AIPAC and the GOP base, which are more conservative and  than mainstream Republicans.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney supported Prime Minister Netanyahu when he said, “Israel does not need public lectures about how to weigh decisions of war and peace…  It needs our support.”  He predicted that Iran would have a nuclear weapon if Obama gets reelected.  Romney promised that if he is elected President, Obama’s “policy of procrastination” would end.

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said that the United States should insist that Iran dismantle its nuclear production or be prepared to “tear them down ourselves.”  He said further, “This is not bellicosity and warmongering.  This is preventing the most radical regime in the world from having a [nuclear] weapon.” Santorum accused Obama of “appeasement.”

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich appears on a monitor as he speaks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) policy conference in Washington March 6, 2012. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said that Obama has not delivered a sufficient “red line” ultimatum to Iran’s leaders.  ”The red line is not the morning the bomb goes off or the morning our intelligence committee tells us they’ve failed once again,” Gingrich said.  ”The red line is now.  Because the Iranians now are deepening their fortifications [and] deepening their commitment to nuclear weapons, while we talk.”  He went further and promised to “undermine and replace” the current Iranian regime if he is elected President.

In contrast, President Obama urged peace when he spoke to AIPAC on March 4, 2012.  Obama’s direct message to AIPAC (and indirect message to Israel’s government leaders) was:  “[T]here is too much loose talk of war. Over the last few weeks, such talk has only benefited the Iranian government, by driving up the price of oil, which they depend on to fund their nuclear program. For the sake of Israel’s security, America’s security and the peace and security of the world, now is not the time for bluster. Now is the time to let our increased pressure sink in and to sustain the broad international coalition we have built. Now is the time to heed the timeless advice from Teddy Roosevelt: Speak softly; carry a big stick. And as we do, rest assured that the Iranian government will know our resolve and that our coordination with Israel will continue.”

On March 6, 2012, when the Republican candidates spoke to AIPAC on Super Tuesday, President Obama responded to Republican calls for war in his Press Conference:  “Typically, it’s not the folks who are popping off who pay the price,” he said.  ”It’s these incredible men and women in uniform and their families who pay the price.”  He said that the GOP candidates “don’t have a lot of responsibilities — they’re not commander in chief,” He added, “There’s no doubt that those who are suggesting or proposing or beating the drums of war should explain clearly to the American people what they think the costs and benefits would be.”  Finally he said, “If some of these folks think that it’s time to launch a war, they should say so.  And they should explain to the American people exactly why they would do that and what the consequences would be.  Everything else is just talk.”

Ironically, at the same time that the GOP candidates were criticizing Obama and supporting Netanyahu at the AIPAC meeting, the UN Security Council announced that it has accepted an offer from Tehran to resume talks on its nuclear enrichment program.

USA & EU SWIFTly Destroy Iran’s Finances

On Friday, February 17, 2012, Iran agreed to nuclear talks with the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany without any of its previously unacceptable preconditions that blocked earlier talks. On Tuesday, February 21, 2012, however, Iran refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog agency, to view its facility southeast of Tehran where it tests its explosives. The IAEA left Iran and the talks were put on hold again.

Severe economic sanctions continue to strangle Iranian citizens as their prices soar and their currency collapses. Nevertheless, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced on Iran’s state television, “Pressures, sanctions, and assassinations will bear no fruit. No obstacles can stop Iran’s nuclear work.” This is in spite of the mounting sanctions and Israel’s threat to bomb Iran in the Spring. Iran tried to assassinate Israeli diplomats in Georgia, India, and Thailand in recent weeks in response to Israel’s having killed five Iranian nuclear scientists in the past two years. US diplomats continue to shuttle back and forth to Israel to deter any preemptive strikes on Iran, but Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman responded “with all due respect I have for the United States and Russia, it’s none of their business. The security of Israel and its residents, Israel’s future, is the responsibility of Israel’s government.”

With the situation growing ever more desperate, the US Senate’s Banking Committee passed a bill to cut off Iranian financial institutions from access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). The European Union will vote to do the same by early March. This will cut Iranian banks out of the global financial system. SWIFT enables banks and companies to move money around the world. Without SWIFT, Iran will not be able to do business with any other country.

In the face of total financial collapse, Iran will have to resume nuclear talks with the West.

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